BJP Vote Share Change 2024: State-wise Analysis

BJP losing relevance in their core agenda

Uttar Pradesh results were a massive shock for BJP. Despite long pending Ram temple construction, BJP not only performed badly in the state but also lost at Ayodhya itself. The party struggled with rising discontent over issues like unemployment, farmer distress, and inflation. The party’s inability to effectively address these concerns led to a loss of support from key voter segments.

In recent elections, the BJP’s significant setbacks in Manipur, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal stem from various critical issues.

In Manipur, the BJP faced backlash due to its handling of ethnic violence and economic grievances, which eroded trust among local voters. Allegations of mishandling aid and insufficient response to conflict exacerbated dissatisfaction.

West Bengal witnessed a strong regional sentiment against the BJP, driven by local political dynamics and the Trinamool Congress’s effective counter-campaign. Additionally, the BJP’s central policies and lack of focus on local issues contributed to its diminishing appeal in the state.

States with significant BJP vote share change

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) made notable gains in vote share in the states of Tripura, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh due to a combination of strategic factors.

The BJP’s significant vote share increase in Tripura can be attributed to its effective campaign against the long-standing rule of the Left Front. The party capitalized on anti-incumbency sentiments, promising development and economic reforms. The strategic alliance with regional parties and outreach to tribal communities also played a key role.

In Telangana, the BJP’s gains were driven by its focus on national issues and the party’s stance on regional identity. The BJP positioned itself as a viable alternative to the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), attracting voters disillusioned with local governance issues. Similarly in Andhra Pradesh, the BJP’s alliance with local parties and emphasis on national integration resonated with voters. The party’s campaign highlighted central government initiatives and sought to appeal to a broad demographic spectrum, gaining traction among urban and rural voters alike.

Pleasant surprises for BJP

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has employed distinct strategies to strengthen its presence and win votes in states like Odisha, Kerala, and Assam.

In Odisha, the BJP’s strategy focused on grassroots mobilization and targeting neglected rural areas. The party emphasized issues like development, infrastructure, and tribal welfare, appealing to a broad voter base. By building a strong organizational structure and leveraging the popularity of central schemes, the BJP made significant inroads, challenging the long-dominant Biju Janata Dal (BJD).

Political analysts observe a significant transformation in Kerala’s political dynamics, highlighted by the BJP’s notable achievements in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP’s victory in Thrissur, along with an increase in its vote share across numerous constituencies, signifies this change. Notably, actor-politician Suresh Gopi’s win in Thrissur contributed to the BJP-led NDA’s vote share rising from over 15 percent in 2019 to nearly 20 percent. This development marks a shift from the state’s traditional bipolar contests between the Congress-led UDF and the CPI(M)-led LDF to a more competitive tripolar scenario.

The BJP’s success in Assam can be attributed to its focus on national security and cultural identity, particularly concerning the issue of illegal immigration. The party’s promise of development, coupled with the appeal of local leaders like Himanta Biswa Sarma, helped consolidate its position.

Additionally, strategic alliances and a strong campaign narrative on economic growth and stability contributed to the BJP’s electoral victories.